Door left ajar for fracking? Kwarteng orders BGS to reconsider the evidence

In a surprise move yesterday which has received relatively little press, Business Secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, wrote to the British Geological Society giving them 3 months to produce a report setting out whether shale gas can be extracted safely in the UK using hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') (here). We've heard much about offshore wind, solar and nuclear being big parts of the Government's soon-to-be-announced energy supply strategy. But could this mean that the door is going to be left ajar for fracking to come back into the mix? Or is this just a sweetener for the group of Tory MPs, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, who have recently been lobbying Government to renew its support for fracking given concerns over loss of Russian gas and our longer term energy security.

The Government announcement (here) states that: "While shale gas extraction is not the solution to near-term price issues, it is right that all possible energy generation and production methods are kept on the table following the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by President Putin's regime."

After initial enthusiasm from the Cameron/Osborne government for the idea of kicking off a 'shale gas revolution' in the UK similar to that in the US, Tory support for fracking evaporated in November 2019 after a series of seismic events (tremors) were recorded at the first UK site to be developed (Cuadrilla's Preston New Road site in Lancashire). Boris imposed a moratorium - perhaps not  coincidental that this was one month prior to the general election, where northern seats were to prove so crucial to the Tory's winning strategy.

Obtaining consent for Cuadrilla's site had not been easy. Refused consent locally, Cuadrilla won on appeal and defeated several attempts at judicial review. To date it is the only UK site to have been horizontally drilled and fracked for shale gas. Many more months of exploratory drilling and fracking were needed to ascertain if the site was even viable for commercial production – particularly with gas prices so low at the time. But it was a pioneer project, and given the high degree of public concern over fracking the Government had insisted on use of a 'traffic light' system to monitor seismicity and shut down activities if 'amber' or 'red' levels of seismicity were recorded.

Several amber events and a red event of 2.9 on the Richter scale led to the Government's industry-wide ban. Fair enough, you might say.

But what's interesting is that the same traffic light system does not apply to other sectors – in particular, it does not apply to the geothermal industry, which uses exactly the same 'fracking' technique to release heat from rocks below the earth's surface. Multiple seismic events have, for example, been recorded at the United Downs geothermal power project in Cornwall. The recorded 'red-light' events at the United Downs geothermal well site were higher than the largest seismic events recorded at the first Preston New Road well, and more red-light events have now been recorded at the United Downs site than were recorded across both of Cuadrilla's wells at Preston New Road.  At no point were United Downs required to stop operating. What's more, Cuadrilla's 2.9 'tremor' (which lasted for 2 seconds) was only about half the maximum limit recommended for vibration produced at UK construction sites. Put another way, if the same rules were applied to all UK construction very few major projects would go ahead.

In a legal sense, there is therefore arguably a pure 'irrationality' at the heart of the shale gas moratorium based on seismicity.

Interesting, therefore, that Kwarteng has expressly directed the BGS's review to cover 'how the seismicity caused by fracturing compares to other forms of underground energy production, such as geothermal and coal mining, or surface activities such as construction. Can [the BGS] review the evidence on the different 'safe' thresholds for activity, whether they remain the correct ones, and whether differences between them remain justified'. If the Government is serious about producing gas from shale, this will be key. This follows the dramatic U-turn made by the North Sea Transition Authority which announced at the last minute (days after cranes had arrived on site) that Cuadrilla would be allowed an extra 12 months, until at least the end of June 2023, before its two Preston New Road wells and Elswick well need to be permanently sealed with concrete and abandoned.

Like most people, I whole-heartedly support maximising non-fossil electricity generation as fast as we can. Having promoted consents for both Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C nuclear power stations, and now acting for a number of solar developers, I hope the Government renews and strengthens its support for both. But for the foreseeable future (at least until 2050 according to the Climate Change Committee) we need gas as well as electricity. Solar and nuclear are no answer to this need for gas. So, while it is unfashionable, and having acted for Cuadrilla for many years I may be biased, I echo the views of Centrica boss Chris O'Shea (here): fracking is 'worth exploring'.

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