Will Australia turn to nuclear power? — Not anytime soon

In June, the leader of Australian political opposition Peter Dutton announced plans to build seven nuclear power plants starting from 2035. The National-Liberal Coalition policy was met with scepticism from industry and government, best summarised by Federal Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, who described nuclear as "too expensive, too slow to build and too risky for energy reliability".

There is also the small matter that nuclear power is currently effectively banned nationally through the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Act 1998 and the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. Most Australian states also have bans under state legislation, with the removal of these bans in some cases (such as Queensland) requiring a public referendum.

If Australia were to pursue a nuclear strategy in earnest, the first step would be removing the federal and state bans on the technology. This would prove complicated – Queensland senator Matt Canavan recently saw his private member's bill to this end rejected. But even if the political blockages were removed, developing a schedule for regulation and development from a standing start remains a daunting prospect. Sydney-based Herbert Smith Freehills (HSF) projects, energy and infrastructure partner David Ryan, outlines the issues. "People here are largely technology agnostic, but there is zero nuclear industry in Australia. There is no one with the relevant skills or expertise and the social licence is untested and likely to prove problematic. To build an industry in the timeframes required to replace coal-fired generation looks too hard, too long and prohibitively expensive."

It is an opinion shared by some developing Asia-Pacific nations currently running their economies on cheaper fossil fuels. But attitudes across the region vary greatly. Japan, for example, is now restarting its nuclear industry after the 2011 Fukushima incident. "The story is different for every country in the region," says Tokyo-based HSF energy partner Lachlan Clancy. "In Japan, post-Fukushima there was a difficult period where nuclear was politically unacceptable. Over time, balancing decarbonisation with practical considerations, nuclear has come back into focus as an accepted and probably essential part of their energy mix."

Australia's potential nuclear advantage

Nuclear reactors rely on fissile materials as their fuel – capable of the chemical process of fission, the splitting of the atom to release energy in the form of heat – and the metal uranium is the only naturally occurring fissile isotope. It is here Australia possesses a distinct advantage, with the world's largest reserves of uranium.  However, the specific isotope required for reactors makes up only 0.7% of total mined uranium and the largest operators for uranium enrichment are based elsewhere. But Australia's position in the nuclear supply chain – providing around 10% of global uranium used for zero-emissions electricity – is one area where the country enjoys an advantage ahead of a potential nuclear strategy.  There are also signs – albeit nascent – that the country could start developing the expertise required to build a nuclear industry after the UK, US and Australia in 2023 signed the AUKUS agreement to build an Australian nuclear-powered submarine fleet.

Coal has offered Australia cheap, plentiful energy. But the country's coal-fired generation fleet is rapidly retiring and needs replacing with an alternative energy source by the mid-2030s. Meanwhile, electricity demand is growing amid increased use of data centres for AI and wider electrification.

So, where does nuclear rank among the contenders to provide clean power?  "Probably a distant fourth," concedes Ryan. "You have renewables like onshore wind and solar first and second. Natural gas is considered an intermediate. Australia has to find a way to replace about 60% of its energy generation within 10 years. Nuclear is not going to do that, the timeframes blow that out the water. It has to be a firmed renewables mix, priority one."

Currently, Australia's nuclear ambitions centre narrowly around the Coalition's vision for a future energy regime, with government, industry and states doubtful the technology can be deployed on time without prohibitive costs. In the longer term, nuclear's prospects remain open and subject to increasing political debate, but it's clear Australia is betting on renewables to meet the immediate demands of the energy transition.