As 2023 comes to a close, we take a moment to consider what 2024 might bring. It's impossible to predict everything the country might have to deal with - the ongoing inquiry into the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is a reminder of that. However, one event that we know is likely to happen in 2024 is the general election, which must be held by the end of January 2025 but is widely anticipated for autumn 2024 or even as soon as the spring.
What impact could the general election have on UK real estate development? We asked partners and senior lawyers across our UK Real Estate team for their thoughts.
"Investors like stable governments with working majorities. If you believe current polls this is what the next UK General Election should deliver. However, voter behaviour is notoriously unpredictable and there is a real possibility of a much more mixed result on the day. If so, we will need to accept another period of political uncertainty and hope for greater stability in the market and broader economy instead."
Jeremy Walden, Partner and Head of Real Estate, London
"2024 promises to be a gateway year for planning. Although little will happen before the general election, we can anticipate whoever forms the next government to take a radical look at our planning system. After a prolonged period when changes were frequently promised but never arrived (like HS2 …), the drought can be expected to give way to a deluge of reform. Will this be good news for development? I'm feeling optimistic – if we are talking about the expansion of development corporations and a review of the green belt this time next year then that will be something truly worth a festive cheer."
Matthew White, Partner and Head of Planning, London
"Whatever the outcome of the election, the market is likely to appreciate some stability in the political landscape in order to make longer-term investment decisions. Amongst other things the next term will inevitably see continued focus on low carbon and sustainable projects, new and affordable housing and ensuring safety in design and construction of all assets (whether or not higher risk buildings). We expect evolving ideas for ensuring that nationally significant projects are delivered on time and on budget, including around productivity improvements, skills development and securing a sustainable supply chain to weather any economic headwinds."
Tim Healey, Partner and Head of Non-contentious Construction, London
"Whilst the cross-party appetite to modernise real estate law appears strong, many of the current often radical proposals have attracted criticism which may slow their progress in 2024. I expect we'll continue to see a flurry of activity where the government tries to secure as much ground as possible, but the clock is ticking as the election cannot be later than January 2025 and may be much sooner. This time pressure increases the risk of rushed legislation, which can result in uncertainty and protracted litigation - quite the opposite of the objectives of transparency, fairness and simplicity that the government espouses."
Matthew Bonye, Partner and Head of Real Estate Disputes, London
"Environmental law in the UK will continue its post-EU exit transition. Regulation and policy anticipation (and its uncertainty) combined with environmental improvement targets, net-zero targets (to which the UK are still committed) and the potential trade-offs between environmental protection or enhancement levels and financial viability for development all seem set to continue throughout 2024 irrespective of election outcome. The role of the real estate sector in championing its own sustainable practices, in highlighting sector risks to better inform and scrutinise policy and to lead by example has probably never been more important".
Jo Holbrook, Of Counsel, Environment, London
"The hope is that a general election, whatever the outcome, will put an end to an unprecedented period of political instability in the UK, and will herald an era of stability to give the domestic and international business community the confidence to unlock activity and deliver projects."
Michelle Howie, Partner, Real Estate, London
"2024 is the 'year of the election' with around 40 nations across the globe having the opportunity to elect new governments. Much of the focus globally will inevitably be on the US, but there are many other nations, critical to the existing world order, who have opportunity to change direction (or not). At this point in time, certainty, stability and predictability, would be welcomed by most. Relative to the choice facing many nations, little real impact will be felt in the UK if there is a change in government. The impact of the elections elsewhere in the world have the potential for a far greater impact on [the UK][UK property]."
Will Turnbull, Partner, Real Estate, London
"In the lead up to the election we expect a combination of the government rushing to push through vote-winning planning decisions, whilst kicking anything too controversial into the long grass. The planning industry is highly sensitive to any changes in government, not least as a change of Secretary of State means a change of decision maker for nationally significant infrastructure, called-in applications and recovered appeals. Should there be a new government, this is likely to herald changes in key planning policies such as those relating to housing and energy."
Charlotte Dyer, Of Counsel, Planning, London
"The increase in investment and financing transactions in the final part of 2023 gives me hope that next year will start off with more optimism and pace. However, the uncertainty around the timing (and consequences) of the general election does throw an unfortunate spanner in the works, however, so it remains to be seen whether confidence will return to the market quickly. So much like the end of 2022, we will watch with hope (and contribute where we can) that optimism for Q1 / Q2 does not drift into optimism for Q2/Q3 etc".
Simon Elliott, Partner, Real Estate, London
2023 HSF Real Estate Development Yule Blog
Thank you for reading this year's HSF Real Estate Development Yule Blog. We hope that you have enjoyed our festive offering and wish you much happiness over the holiday season.
Subscribe here to Real Estate Development Notes for more from us throughout 2024.
Previous posts in our 2023 Yule Blog are here:
- Yule Blog 2023 – 12th Day – Drum roll please…
- Yule Blog 2023 – 11th Day – What’s in the pipeline for tenants in 2024?
- Yule Blog 2023 – 10th Day – The Levelling Up and Regeneration Act 2023
- Yule Blog 2023 – 9th Day – 9 ESG Steps for Real Estate
- Yule Blog 2023 – 8th Day – The property cases standing out from the herd
- Yule Blog 2023 – 7th Day – Nutrient and water neutrality
- Yule Blog 2023 – 6th Day – Laying out the new regime for Approved Inspectors
- Yule Blog 2023 – 5th Day – Golden rules for notices
- Yule Blog 2023 – 4th Day – Biodiversity net gain
- Yule Blog 2023 – 3rd Day – Changes to the Register of Overseas Entities
- Yule Blog 2023 – 2nd Day – Two staircases in residential buildings
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The articles published on this website, current at the dates of publication set out above, are for reference purposes only. They do not constitute legal advice and should not be relied upon as such. Specific legal advice about your specific circumstances should always be sought separately before taking any action.