COP29 in Baku: Expectations and key issues on the global climate stage

This week marks the start of the latest Conference of the Parties in Azerbaijan ("COP29", being the 29^th COP since the first Conference of Nations in Berlin in 1995), the annual gathering of UN member states aimed at negotiating and implementing global climate agreements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Expectations were tempered in the leadup to COP29, especially as venue limitations risk a smaller attendance than previous years. While nations acknowledge the urgency of ambitious climate action, geopolitical tensions, financing disagreements, and varying levels of commitment have lowered hopes for a breakthrough in Baku.

Recap of COP28 Outcomes

COP28, held in Dubai, brought unexpected breakthroughs (including being the first COP where Parties explicitly committed to "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems") but also highlighted the gaps between diplomacy and concrete action (such as dollars pledged in support of climate goals). Some important outcomes from COP28 which will be relevant for COP29 include:

• Loss and Damage Fund: One significant outcome of COP28 was the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund acknowledging the need to focus on and fund adaptation strategies, particularly for vulnerable nations facing severe climate impacts. However, while the Fund established a clearer framework for loss and damage financing, disagreements over allocation, governance, and contribution levels persist, paving the way for further debate at COP29.
• Global Stocktake and NDC Enhancements: COP28 also marked the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement. The Global Stocktake is intended to evaluate the progress of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) toward the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The review showed that many countries were still falling short of their targets and negotiations of the final agreed text for the Global Stocktake ended up being fraught. Parties will now need to submit their next round of updated NDCs in 2025, meaning that this will be an important topic for COP29.
• Climate Finance Commitments: Another point noted during the first Global Stocktake was that developed countries were falling short of the goal set at COP15 (2009) of mobilising $100 annually by 2025 to support developing countries in the implementation of their obligations under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. COP28 renewed this pledge, emphasizing the need for reliable financing mechanisms. The commitment raised hopes, but it is still unclear how funds will be allocated effectively to mitigate the most pressing climate impacts, with many developing nations objecting to the over-reliance on private sector investment to deliver effective climate finance (you can read more about the mobilisation of blended finance towards climate finance aims in our Finance Primer here).

Open Issues for COP29

With unresolved challenges from COP28, COP29 will be crucial for advancing discussions in several areas:

• Enhanced NDCs and Accountability: A major aspiration for future COPs is to address the emissions gap revealed by the Global Stocktake last year. Countries are expected to discuss ways to make their NDCs more ambitious and aligned with the 1.5°C target, however, it is unclear the extent to which COP29 can unlock stricter accountability measures, possibly through peer review mechanisms or national policy adjustments, to ensure countries are progressing as committed.
• New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance: The NCQG describes the process of trying to negotiate new and more ambitious climate finance goals. Negotiations on the NCQG began at COP26 (2021) and aim to set a new target exceeding  $100 billion annually (which is the current target set at COP15 in 2009). Notwithstanding that the current target has not been met, it is expected that the NCQ work programme will continue during COP29.
• Operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund: Despite renewed pledges, climate finance remains one of the thorniest issues on the COP agenda. The establishment of a Loss and Damage fund was a key achievement at COP28, but further operational details on allocation, eligibility, and contribution rates are needed to make it effective. In Baku, negotiations will focus on how to create reliable channels for fund allocation, ensuring the most vulnerable nations receive the support needed. Developing countries will push for clear timelines, fair distribution, and safeguards against diverting funds for non-climate purposes.
• Climate Adaptation Goals: Climate adaptation (as opposed to mitigation) remains a focal but controversial topic in COPs and will continue occupy negotiators (particularly those from countries where the effects of climate change on agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods are already most strongly felt) during COP29. COP29 may see further negotiations on increasing financing for adaptation projects that strengthen resilience in critical sectors such as agriculture, water management, and public health.The hope is that practical frameworks emerge to build resilience in sectors already feeling the effects of climate change. These frameworks should focus on creating climate-resilient infrastructure, securing water and food supplies, and protecting at-risk communities.
• Incorporating Indigenous and Local Community Knowledge: Indigenous communities have long been recognized for their effective environmental stewardship, yet their contributions and perspectives are often underrepresented in formal climate frameworks. Following the successful establishment of a Permanent Subsidiary Body (i.e. a permanent negotiation body) representing Indigenous peoples during COP16 on Biodiversity in Cali, Colombia (see our blog on key outcomes from COP16 here), there is a hope that COP29 will also improve the incorporation of Indigenous knowledge into climate strategies, potentially introducing frameworks that value traditional ecological practices and involve Indigenous leaders in climate policy-making.

Expectations for COP29 Negotiations

While no sweeping agreements are expected, COP29’s negotiations will lay the groundwork for steady progress across these critical issues. Observers anticipate that Baku will yield pragmatic, incremental commitments rather than ambitious, binding targets. However, a successful COP29 could demonstrate unity on key issues and create momentum toward more robust action.

Between COPs: Room for Progress?

While COPs are the focal point of climate action, there is room for progress between COP29 and COP30. Regional coalitions, cross-sector alliances, and ongoing scientific studies offer avenues for countries to implement interim climate measures. Some nations may take advantage of this period to adopt policies that address immediate climate risks, such as emission reduction standards, investment in renewable energy, and deforestation controls.

Conclusion

COP29 in Baku presents an opportunity to tackle ongoing challenges and reaffirm global climate commitments. While expectations for groundbreaking agreements are modest, Baku will serve as a juncture for advancing discussions, including quantifiable national targets, effective climate financing, and adaptation targets. Incremental gains in Baku could build a foundation for stronger agreements in future COPs or even between COPs.